ChrisRam.net

Introduction

Over the course of the next two days corporate Guyana will come alive with annual general meetings scheduled to be held by two of the country’s public companies. Demerara Tobacco Company Limited (Demtoco), a subsidiary of the British American Tobacco, plc. will have its meeting on March 31 and one day later on April 1, the Guyana Bank of Trade and Industry (GBTI), a 61% subsidiary of Edward B. Beharry and Company Limited, will have its annual general meeting. The Companies Act 1991 allows companies six months to hold their AGMs and the companies are to be commended for their early meetings.

GBTI reports a 57% increase in after tax income for 2007 coming after a 51% increase in 2006 while Demtoco has had more modest increases, 34% in 2007 and 14% in 2006. By any measure these are extremely impressive results which are reflected in the performance of the companies’ share prices over the past three years and provide returns that ironically make bank deposits seem correspondingly unattractive. The average deposit account at the GBTI yielded a return of 3.5% while an investor in the shares of the bank earned 33% (26% of which represents capital appreciation) on his shares.

With inflation close to 15% in 2007, the depositor would have seen the real value of his/her deposit decline by about 12% while the investor’s return, which includes cash income by way of dividends and the increase in the market price for the share, amounts to a healthy 16%.

The lesson is that it is far more attractive to own shares in a reasonably profitable company than to put money in a bank account. The Guyana Stock Exchange (GSE) has not had the desired effect of increasing the number of public companies and with most of Guyana’s public companies being held by controlling shareholders the options for investment in Guyanese companies are limited. But with the removal of exchange controls, the operation of the CARICOM Double Taxation Treaty and the introduction of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME), there is no reason for limiting the options to Guyana.

It is true that the GSE has outperformed the regional exchanges since its inception in 2003 but much of that is due to what are called market corrections which are unlikely to continue unless all the companies on the Guyana Exchange can match the 2007 performance of Demtoco and GBTI.

Graph of share price movements

Source: The Guyana Association of Securities Companies and Intermediaries Inc., weekly trading reports

Demtoco

Turnover has barely managed to keep abreast with inflation increasing by 16% but the increase in the profit after tax is due to a 30% increase in gross profit – sales less cost of sales – as a result of two price increases in the year which unlike the increases in the price of rice and flour hardly earned a comment in the national press. There is little analysis offered by the Chairman in his one page report or by the Managing Director, neither of whom commented on any impact VAT may have had on the company’s product and performance. The company paid three interim dividends in 2007 amounting to $21.38 per share and is proposing to the shareholders a final dividend of $15.85 making a total of $37.23 giving shareholders a return of 17% on the average market price of the share during the year.

The group gets more however, having charged the company more than $600 million dollars for management services, royalties and technical and advisory services to what it is now no more than a marketing company. The company continues to justify a royalty for a product that can be bought almost anywhere outside of Guyana and seems able to justify exorbitant management services when all the company does is bring in a product sold mainly through at most a handful of distributors.

The balance sheet of the company shows a healthy situation with the company being able to make available to its fellow group companies more than $400 million dollars at the end of the year of which only 60% earns interest at the rate of 4% per annum.

Once again the company does not disclose the number of employees nor does it include anything on corporate governance. Readers will recall one past Country Manager publicly proclaiming defiance to any suggestion that it should comply with Corporate Governance Guidelines until these become legally binding prompting a rejoinder that corporate governance is not a matter of law but best practice (Stabroek News 22/5/04).

Financial Highlights

GBTI

The report by GBTI is far more comprehensive than Demtoco’s, running to 86 pages of material and lots of pictures including two Ministers of Government. Unlike Demtoco the Bank produces a full page Statement on Corporate Governance and eye-catching Financial Highlights although the reader has to go through nineteen pages before s/he finds these.

All the indicators are positive in favour of the shareholders if not the depositors in the bank. Shareholders receive a return of 33% in dividends and capital appreciation, while depositors of interest bearing accounts earned 3.5% (3.4% in 2006) and the average of all depositors 2.6% (2.5% in 2006). Share prices during the year increased by 26% on an increase in earnings per share of 57% and if the bank’s outlook for itself and the economy is shared by investors, then it is quite possible that there will be a further movement in share prices over the next few months.

The company reports accumulated provision for loan losses amounting to 96% of its non-performing portfolio, having written off $831 million in 2006 but only $20 million in 2007. From a profit and loss account perspective the provision for loan losses declined by $70 million which has augmented the profits for the year.

Another contributor to the substantial after tax profits of the Bank is the reduced effective rate of tax it pays for the year – at 18% it is half the effective rate paid in 2006 and results from more than $300 million in interest earned being “not taxable”. The normal rate of corporation tax is 45% and if the effective rate had remained at 36%, after tax profits would be $170 million less.

Loans

A bank’s contribution to national development can be measured by its lending to key sectors of the economy. The sectoral analysis of the bank’s loan portfolio shows agriculture accounting for a mere 7.64%, a further reduction from the 9% in 2006. By contrast the share of the portfolio to the services sector has increased from 38% to 43%. Nationally agriculture accounts for approximately 25% of GDP. While the Bank was once considered the rice farmers’ bank (other than GNCB), some operators in the sector lament that the Bank has been taking a very harsh line on borrowers in the rice sector. Indeed this makes it somewhat paradoxical that the Bank won a bid to manage the EU G$1.6 billion facility to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the rice sector.

The loans to deposit ratio has declined slightly from 28% to 26% despite having won the bid and having received $825 million interest free under the Scheme. The Scheme comes to an end in June of this year but the annual report is unclear whether interest will then become payable on the amounts drawn down.

Highlights

In their outlook for 2008 and beyond, the Chairman and the CEO were both upbeat about the prospects for the country, reflected in the extension of their branch network and new Head Office to be constructed during the year. Neither mentioned the events in Lusignan (January 26) or Bartica (February 17) and the consequential threats to the economy. It would be interesting to see which one of our two companies would be impacted more directly if the country does not solve events of that nature.

Finally, the results for both entities show how the tax system can be worked in favour of corporate taxpayers with the range of “tax shelters” that are available. Individuals, bound by a single personal allowance and a tax rate of 33⅓ %, can only read with envy.

Introduction

If nothing else President George Bush is an incorrigible optimist. And on this occasion it is not about the Iraq War that defies costing in the sense that by the time this column appears two days after its submission the cost has gone up by more than US$650 million dollars, or by that much more than the half a trillion spent in the five years since the US invaded that country. It is about the state and outlook of the US economy which some say is already in a recession while others say in language more suited to diplomats that the economy is “moving sideways.”

What effect does the state of the US economy have on the rest of the world and more directly how will it affect us in Guyana? The answer to these questions is complicated by one further uncertainty - the presidential elections later this year. All the signs point to a race involving Senators Barack Obama for the Democrats and John McCain, a seasoned campaigner and maverick, for the Republicans. Obama is relatively new to foreign policy and his external connections have been mainly Indonesia where he spent part of his early life and Kenya, the country of his father.

Obama v McCain

Obama has made exit from Iraq a major plank of his campaign commitment, and assuming that he wins, getting out of Iraq may be far more complicated than he believes and resolving that may very well take the better part of a year. Any policy towards the Caribbean will be wrapped up in the wider Latin American question and the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). For all the support he has received from the Caribbean, he is unlikely to give our region any kind of priority.

John McCain, on the other hand, has strong foreign policy credentials but these have been manifested mainly towards Europe, Asia and the Middle East, including his unwavering support of the Iraq War. Regardless of who wins, unless that person appoints someone with clout and a genuine interest in the Caribbean, the region will not receive much attention in the first year or two of the new presidency.

Exchange rate

Yet what happens to the US economy is important to us mainly for two reasons - the Guyana dollar is largely measured in relation to the United States dollar and second, the Guyana economy benefits heavily from remittances from Guyanese in the United States. In 2007 the Guyana economy grew faster than that of the US and our international reserves did not deteriorate, yet counter-intuitively the rate of exchange of the Guyana dollar to the US fell, albeit slightly. To make matters worse, because the US dollar was falling against the other major international currencies, those declines were reflected in the rate of the Guyana dollar against those currencies, resulting in increased prices for imports from those countries.

Another major imported product - fuel - is priced in United States dollars and a significant part of the increase in the price of a barrel of oil is attributable to the fall in the rate of the US$. In passing, it should be noted that Guysuco and other exporters to non-US currency destinations would have benefited from the fall in the rate of the US$ and by extension of the Guyana dollar.

Remittances

The second major reason for the relevance of the outlook of the US economy to Guyana was shown in an article in this newspaper earlier this week referring to a report by the Multilateral Investment Fund (MIF) of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) that Guyana leads the Latin America and Caribbean region in remittance receipts in 2007 as a percentage of GDP, with US$424M or 43 per cent of GDP received. These are truly staggering numbers and warrant a response by way of an analysis from the Bank of Guyana and our academics.

The obvious question is whether such levels can be maintained. If the US economy continues to under-perform causing a loss of jobs and a fall in income, it would be difficult for Guyanese in the US to maintain the level of remittances they have been sending back home. It is true that increasing numbers of Guyanese are taking their chances in the Caribbean - with Antigua, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago being the more prominent countries - and that so far the economies of these countries have been steady. This should mean that remittances from those countries should not be affected and may even increase as more Guyanese head in their direction. The real fear therefore lies with respect to the US economy.

Recession or not? - OECD

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a grouping of 30 mostly developed democratic countries, including the three powers of North America, most of Europe and Asian Pacific members Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, in an assessment released in Paris last week was only prepared to say that the US economy is “teetering on the brink of recession” - defined as two consecutive periods of negative growth. The US economy is expected to grow 0.1 per cent in the first quarter, a sharp reduction from the 0.3 per cent estimated in December, and to show zero growth in the second, a sudden halt compared with the 0.4 per cent projection given previously. Despite the sharp downward revision, acting chief OECD economist Jorgen Elmeskov is of the opinion that “it may be premature to declare a recession” in the United States.

For the year as a whole, 2008 is projected by the OECD to grow 1.4 per cent, down from the December estimate of 2.0 per cent, Given the recent swings in the economy it would be surprising if this estimate is not subject to a number of revisions as the quarters progress.

IMF

The assessment is likely to be confirmed by the IMF in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook, a leaked draft of which shows that it also believes that the US economy “remains very weak, certainly close to a possible recession.” Despite the dollar’s recent steep losses, the draft also suggested that the IMF saw its present value as still “rather strong.”

US businesses

The Conference Board, a major and influential US business group in a report released within the past 48 hours has reported that its index of future economic activity dropped for the fifth consecutive month in February, suggesting that the weakening American economy could, indeed, be slipping into recession. The index is designed to forecast where the nation’s economy is headed in the next three to six months.

Businesses and think tanks attribute the situation to rising gas prices, falling home prices and tightening credit markets which have begun squeezing consumers and businesses, forcing them to cut spending.

Billionaire US investor Warren Buffett dismissed the theoretical definition of recession saying that it is not a question of whether the American economy was in a recession but how far it will go. The legendary billionaire investor expressed concern about the declining wealth, purchasing power, employment and income and does not rule out the possibility that the country’s economic woes could worsen.

More positively, however, Buffett does not consider current conditions as bad as the downturn of 1973 and 1974 when Americans were also battered by skyrocketing oil prices, and he expressed optimism that the economy would rebound strongly in time. Buffett also repeated his belief that the US dollar will continue weakening for as long as the United States maintains a hefty current account deficit, particularly with China and the countries of the Middle East from which it imports oil.

Conclusion

These fears are not without merit. The dramatic meltdown and bail-out of Bear Stearns, one of the US’s largest underwriters of mortgage bonds resulting from the collapse in June of two of their internal hedge funds that had been heavily invested in mortgage securities, emphasises the continuing crisis in the housing sector which is affecting not only the pockets but the psyche of American consumers, who could always count on having some equity in their homes (the value less any debts owed on the house). Even the proverbial dream is evaporating to such an extent that illegal migrants are now voluntarily going back to their homes, something which would have been considered unthinkable one year ago.

The collapse in the US housing market coincides with rising food, energy and raw material costs, raising the spectre of inflation for consumers, but making it more difficult for central banks facing a choice between cutting interest rates to spur growth and keeping them high to curb prices.

As the US braces for troubled waters, those remittances may indeed be in doubt.

Introduction

Last week I began looking at the capital expenditure of the central government comparing it with the rate of growth over a five year period. The conclusion was that despite the government having spent over US$800 million dollars over that period and more than US$1 billion over the last seven years, this expenditure has not been reflected in matching growth in the economy. One person commenting on that conclusion considered that I was ignoring the extent of the underground economy which is estimated to range between 30% and 60%. While there is merit in that criticism it is hard to fault anyone for using official statistics but more important is whether the substantial sums spent on capital expenditure by the government are for the benefit of those who under-declare their businesses’ performance and engage in tax evasion and money laundering or for those who struggle to survive in very challenging circumstances and yet try to abide by the laws and the rules.

I concluded last week with a commitment to look this week at the significant items in the capital expenditure budget for 2008 of G$40 billion dollars. Of that amount, four ministries account for $26.6 billion or 66% (See following table). Compared with the preceding year however this was approximately 0.16% over 2007 during which the official rate of inflation was close to 15%.

Table 1 - ($million)

Source: Estimates of the Public Sector, 2008

The Ministry of Finance itself does not within its own portfolio expend the capital expenditure it allocates itself but spends this in a number of areas. A more direct breakdown of the $8.8 billion it will spend in 2008 is as follows:

1. $4 billion to the Guyana Sugar Corporation;
2. $575 million providing for institutional strengthening and purchase of equipment under the IDB funded Fiscal and Financial Management Programme;
3. $998 million for support to community roads, drainage and irrigation projects; and
4. $674 million providing for poverty alleviation and community development projects.

Of the $8,049 million to be spent by the Ministry of Public Works and Communications:

1. A total of $6.2 billion has been budgeted for roads ($5 billion) and bridges ($1.2 billion) of which a substantial portion ($1.8 billion) is for ongoing expenditure on the New Amsterdam to Moleson Creek Road and $980 million budgeted to complete the access roads to the Berbice River Bridge and the rehabilitation of 54 bridges along the Timehri-Rosignol corridor;
2. $2.2 billion to continue construction, rehabilitation and maintenance of sea defence structures;
3. $395 million for the docking of ferry vessels and dredges, acquisition of spares, and rehabilitation of stellings and navigational aids;
4. $108 million is budgeted for the construction of two new airstrips at Wakenaam and Leguan and the rehabilitation of the Baramita Airstrip.

Operators in the domestic airline sector to whom I spoke claim not to have been consulted on this extravagantly unaffordable proposal for the two airstrips. Access to many of the established airstrips is only available at prohibitively expensive charter service affordable to only a few. Not only will these new airstrips be badly under-utilised but operating and maintenance will run into millions each year. This is what I have referred to as cost-added rather than value-added expenditure from which only government ministers are likely to benefit.

Security

Mainly security expenditure in the Central Government Budget falls under the Ministry of Home Affairs which includes the Police and the Guyana Defence Force. These are the capital expenditure allocated in the 2008 Budget:

Table 2 - ($million)

Source: Estimates of the Public Sector, 2008

Included in the capital expenditure budget for the Ministry of Home Affairs is an allocation of $660 million for the Citizens Security Programme and $430 million for the Guyana Police Force.

Despite having announced that the government would be spending some $900 million on acquiring equipment including two helicopters for the Army in 2008 the allocation is considerably less which can only mean that the government was planning to have Supplementary appropriation even as the Minister of Finance was delivering the 2008 Budget!

Social Sector

Table 3 - ($Million)

Source: Estimates of the Public Sector, 2008

The Ministry of Labour, Human Services and Social Security has the largest reduction from 2007 in the capital expenditure budget of all the ministries, departments, agencies or regions while education has also dropped by about 20% which may be due to a levelling off of programmes - the allocation to UG-Turkeyen fell by $360 million while the IDB-Funded BEAMS programme fell by $220M, primarily the School Performance Component (provision for numeracy and literacy programmes).

House lots instead of housing

Although substantial sums are to be spent via the Ministry of Housing and Water the allocation for housing ($1.5 billion) is mainly $850 million to provide infrastructure in low income settlement schemes and $420 million to complete roads, drains and structures in various areas. While the government has abandoned any attempt at providing any housing for the really vulnerable who cannot get a mortgage because for example they are either too old to work or simply cannot find jobs the number of new homes has risen substantially as a result of the house lots policy of the government since 1992.

Water gets $3.7 billion for projects which include the completion of two iron removal plants at Sophia and Central Ruimveldt ($500 million); upgrade of transmission and distribution lines ($331 million); completion of a treatment plant at No. 56 Village ($90 million); design and commencement of construction of three water treatment plants at Lima, Vergenoegen and Cotton Tree ($1 billion) and $58 million to improve water supply services to communities in the hinterland regions.

In agriculture an Agricultural Export Diversification Programme for US$20.9 million will be launched and for the privilege of hosting CARIFESTA for which Guyana was the only taker we will be forking out $300 million in the first instance while in electricity $220 million has been allocated for the purchase of a diesel electrification system for Port Kaituma, to construct distribution systems for Orealla and Siparuta and install solar panels in hinterland communities.

Depressed Communities

There is little in the 2008 Budget that can give any hope to some of our most depressed communities and even the billions that are being spent annually on roads and other infrastructure cannot be enjoyed by the large number of unemployed, pensioners and single parents - overwhelmingly women - who have no jobs to go to and who struggle daily to put some food on their children’s plates. In fact the lack of any attention in the Budget to women and the unemployed and depressed communities is particularly striking.

The major beneficiaries of the capital expenditure are a handful of contractors and suppliers many of whom provide extremely shoddy goods and services including construction of roads, bridges and the Conservancy and many of whom are themselves that group of self-employed that even the Guyana Revenue Authority complain so bitterly about. In fact by their performance and conduct they have raised the question whether the shift in the policy of contracting out ought not now to be revisited. With the margins by some contractors and suppliers being as high as 50%, the country will save tens of billions from having the work done by the government.

Many will consider this too radical but with the substantial savings it would be possible to employ better staff and pay better wages, reduce the level of corruption and still provide a better quality of work than is now obtained from some of our contractors.

Conclusion

When Dr. Ashni Singh was appointed as Minister of Finance there was hope that the quality of budgeting, accounting and financial controls in the government would be improved and that the country would start receiving value for money. That hope has receded and it is now questionable whether he has the courage or the scope to change significantly the system of weak controls and largely tax-and-spend policy he has inherited, even if he was so inclined.

The way a government seeks to tax its people and how it spends the billions so derived best reflect its values, interests and policies.

It is clear that what we have had for close to two decades is a mindset that embraces IMF-style traditional growth rather than pro-poor policies, and which in practice is compromised by poor economic management and equally poor governance.

What would be very useful is for the opposition political parties or economists to come up with a new set of policies and build an alternative budget to reflect those policies.