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Our World in 2009

Sunday, December 28th, 2008

Introduction
Certainly the most authoritative publication which predicts the grand occasions and developments of the following year is the widely circulated Economist, published in the UK. Even by its own admission many of its predictions for 2008 were way off target. That of course is true of all other publications that engage in this annual crystal ball-gazing. But then the Economist is no ordinary weekly – it is the weekly on economics and political issues of the day. Yet it got the US presidential elections wrong and like everyone else did not foresee the financial meltdown which started in the US and saw the nationalisation of nine banks across the US and Europe and the injection of more than a trillion US dollars. Incidentally, economists by a margin of 2 to 1 supported Barack Obama for the presidency of the US.

The US, therefore, is as good a place to start any prediction for 2009 when come January 20, Barack Obama will be sworn in as the first black President of the USA, the world’s only superpower. That is an occasion of historic proportions in a world that has for centuries been defined by colour and class. The world has changed dramatically since Obama began his campaign for the White House on the winning slogan, ‘Yes, We Can.’ The problem for him is how he can persuade the Americans that that statement comes with the unstated qualification, “but not now.” The truth is not even Superman could right the wrongs of US economy in one year.

America’s hope
Yet there are positives from an Obama presidency. He is one reason why the world will start looking at the US through changed lenses. The other is why they should. America accounts for some 20% of global GDP, ie one out of every five dollars spent. It is the willingness of the American consumer to spend – often money it does not have, on goods it does not produce – which has driven China and India, two of the most populous nations of the world to record growth lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty.

But then there are some contradictions. Some economists are troubled that a President Obama, committed to righting the US economy will adopt protectionist measures. He has signalled as much with the promise to give tax breaks to American firms that stay at home. He is also on record as describing NAFTA as “devastating” and “a big mistake,” although he later back-peddled and indicated he would not unilaterally reopen negotiations on NAFTA as he had earlier threatened to do. As increasing number of jobs are perceived to be lost to Mexico, Canada, India and China, the unanimous support which Obama has received from US labour may start to unravel. Already faced with the worst economy ever to have been inherited by an incoming US President, Obama will find that he has one of the shortest honeymoons on record with a zero margin for error.

Obama has also indicated that he would go full steam in a stimulus package designed to slow and then reverse the rate at which the economy is contracting. Estimates of the decline are anywhere between 3-5%, a catastrophic rate indeed, that would spell trouble for the rest of the world. If not the US, can the BRIC countries − Brazil, Russia, India and China − prevent the world economy nose-diving?

The elephant and the dragon
Not too long ago conventional wisdom was that the Chinese and Indian economies could do just that. But more recently, the pessimists have been in the ascendancy. The close of 2008 finds India sabre-rattling with its long-term rival Pakistan following the Mumbai bombing last month. Suddenly the Indian star is losing its brightness with the ever-present political uncertainties resurfacing. Elections predicted to be held in the first half of the year will almost certainly see the governing party paying a huge political price for its failure to respond quickly and decisively to the attack which India blames on Pakistan. The country that has had an average annual growth rate in the past five years in excess of 8% with the major share coming from services is almost certain to slow. The most direct impact will be on the poor, with tens of millions falling back into poverty.

This columnist for one has never been comfortable with an economic philosophy in which economic growth must necessarily be accompanied by a widening of the income and wealth gap. And that is what has been taking place in India. The World Bank reckons that in 2005 the number of persons living below the poverty line was 456 million compared with 420 million in 1981, although when measured as a percentage of the population there was a drop of some 18%. India’s infrastructure is poor, foreign investment is declining and the value of business on which the country’s hugely successful outsourcing information technology sector has been built has also declined.

China too will have its own problems. Its economy and rapid growth have been driven by exports which for seven years until November 2008 kept rising at rates so phenomenal that they astounded economists around the world. Then in November the Chinese reported the first year on year decline in exports of 2.6%. That is as bad for the economy as for the psyche which had started to entertain dreams of a Chinese century. But China’s fortunes in 2009 are bleak only by its own stratospheric standards.

The safest bet to weather an economic storm is to have lots and lots of money. China certainly does. It has re-invested upward of $1 trillion, mostly earnings from manufacturing exports, into American government bonds and government-backed mortgage debt. Its challenge is on choosing between further lending to finance American consumption of China goods or risk a further slowdown of exports on which it has built a modern economy that is the envy of the rest of the world. Its greatest challenge in 2009, however, is not the meltdown itself but how it responds to it. And there the signs for the Year of the Ox in the Chinese calendar are not good. Its instinctive response was a return to censorship.

Brazil and Russia
That takes a huge chunk out of the BRIC countries which some leading thinkers consider as having the potential to challenge the West as the most powerful economies, all within the next few decades. This may seem wishful thinking but those countries cover over twenty-five per cent of the world’s land and forty per cent of the world’s population. But Brazil too is experiencing its own challenges and its Congress recently approved on Thursday a cut of 10.3 billion reals ($4.38 billion) in the government’s 2009 budget to cope with an expected decline in tax revenues as a result of the global economic slowdown.

That leaves Russia. Judging by Putin’s swagger and the short uneven war with Georgia, one gets the impression that Russian power, pride and influence are rising. But with oil prices falling, Russia will have its own economic problems in 2009 with the usual mix of reduced foreign investments, rising imports and declining exports, restrictions on credit and inflation reducing real income.

Here at home
The end of 2008 of course was highlighted by the opening of the bridge across the Berbice River. It was a tremendous Christmas gift not only to Berbicians but to Guyana, and the government should be complimented on the achievement. But as the government looks at the prospects for 2009 it can do so only with at best guarded optimism. Forty years after Independence, Guyana is still mainly a commodity producing country which has only just graduated from being a country subject to the strictures of the IMF.

We are still without any real plan or direction. After more than two decades of allocating the nation’s forestry resources mainly to foreign investors, the country now wakes up to the possibility of carbon credits with President Jagdeo so convinced that he is prepared to make fundamental changes to the use of our forests, all without consultation.  The problem is that so much of our forests have already been allocated that any decision by the President on the use of the forests will require the agreement of the licensees. We could then be in a situation similar to that with GT&T where the government is unable to negotiate out of a lop-sided agreement following years of dithering.

The shelving of any plans for hydropower leaves the consumers at the mercy of the Guyana Power & Light Company which is easily the most inefficient operator of its kind in the region. Perhaps because GPL is state-owned and managed it has escaped the kind of criticism to which GuySuCo has been subjected, sometimes unfairly. It should not escape the attention of the decision-makers that none of the growth sectors of the economy rely on power by GPL for their operations. Until GPL can become an efficient producer and transmitter of electricity, the country’s economic progress will be retarded.

Over the past few years there has been a boom in commodity prices but the national budget has little to show for it. In fact in the midst of the boom, our national sugar company continues to rely on Government for support. National performance like growth in GDP is distorted by the role of international operators in bauxite, rice, gold and forestry. Excessive taxation is imposed on labour while investors enjoy all forms of concessions. There is an obsession with GDP while ignoring people issues like employment and poverty.

The country has so far taken the ostrich’s view of the economic crisis. It is time that we take our heads from the sand if we are to successfully negotiate with the challenges of 2009.

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The PNCR statement is a litany of hearsay and wishful thinking

Sunday, December 28th, 2008

Before I comment on or seek to correct the more egregious errors in the PNCR’s statement published as a letter in the SN of December 19, 2008 (‘Parties in opposition tend to encounter difficulties which can lead to the exit of important members, but they do recover’), it is worth noting that its level of vitriol and malice hardly contributes to enhancing public discourse or the creation of an informed polity.

Equally, it is a measure of how the PNCR has changed over the years in dealing with criticisms. When in 1996 along with other members of civil society I wrote a letter critical of a decision by Mr Desmond Hoyte to speak at a certain function, his response was a private letter to me stating that he “did not accept our concerns as being valid” and promising to follow up with a more complete response. And so he did two weeks later. Mr Corbin, too, demonstrated similar civility towards views expressed by me both publicly and in a letter to him advising him not to follow through with a boycott of the 2004 budget debate since it would rob the party and the country of constructive criticisms of the budget. In a response of April 7, 2004, he stated, “You need not apologise for your persistence. The party welcomes and encourages healthy debate as it is the only way to ventilate all relevant issues.” Apparently those who now issue statements on behalf of the party do not share those sentiments.

Let us now turn to the statement:

1. On taking to the streets: I am not sure by what strange logic or giant leap the statement could interpret my call for “holding the government accountable” as the option of taking “to the streets again.” I sincerely hope that a party which has been around for fifty-three years, twenty-eight of them in government, can be more constructive, creative and resourceful in its strategizing than to think its role is “the street” or nothing. And let me say that I hope the party still considers street activities not only as legal and legitimate but as one of the most effective instruments of political advocacy.

2. On the attitude of people of my “class” to PNC supporters: The statement suggests that people of my “class” refer to the supporters of the PNC as thugs and hooligans. I challenge the architects of the statement to show any evidence where I have ever described, even remotely or indirectly, the supporters of the PNCR or anyone else as hooligans and thugs. In fact one of my most emotional memories of a public encounter with a crowd of persons was during the disturbances on the East Coast Demerara in 2001 when at around 2.30 am a large group advanced on the car I was driving with a number of Indian staff members of our firm. I came out of the car with headlights on, approached the crowd, which was Afro-Guyanese, stating “Good Night friends, my name is Christopher Ram” and heard a voice say “that is a good man. Let us escort them out.”

On this question of class − whose class interests were served when the PNC boasted of its reversal of the policy of making the small man the real man and supported trickle-down economics and the downsizing of jobs in the public sector?

3. The statement refers to what it claims people of the class the party ascribes to me told Mr Corbin on his election as leader of the PNC. What I told Mr Corbin is on record; it is contained in a letter of February 3, 2003, congratulating him on his election as leader of the party and expressing the hope that he would “demonstrate in full measure qualities of wisdom, courage, understanding, sensitivity and personal sacrifice which few possess.”

4. On my party membership: The statement describes me as a “former active member of the WPA.” I have never been a member, let alone an active one, of the WPA. For some time I supported the WPA for its Rodneyite philosophy and principles which I believe are as relevant today as they were when Dr Rodney was around. And I have also acted supportively to other parties, including the PPP/C mainly when in opposition and the PNC. Over the past twelve years I have actively participated in around ten public activities of the PNCR, all in my capacity as an accountant and member of civil society. In fact in the run-up to the 2006 elections when the PNCR invited professional groups to send representatives to meet with it, I unhesitatingly volunteered to represent the accounting profession. Senior members of the party must be aware that I was consulted and sat in on working sessions of two of the main groups charged with the preparation of the party’s 2006 elections manifesto. I suggest to the architects of the statement that they enquire of the reasons for the manifesto being issued just a few days before the elections. Their findings would be instructive.

5. On where I was while the PNC led support for the people during the 2005 and 2006 floods: The statement asks where I was when the PNCR and its Leader led the way in the disastrous floods of 2005 and 2006. The answer is simple − I was actively engaged with civil society in helping to mobilize resources and in the distribution of hampers at the Civil Defence Commission on Thomas Road. When we consider the role and response of organisations like the Red Cross whose mandate is that kind of work and others like Alicea Foundation and the Guyana Citizens Initiative which was established in response to the 2005 disaster, it seems distasteful for any one individual or organization to claim credit. In fact Mr Corbin was doing just what President Jagdeo did – claim credit for what any citizen should do, let alone a political leader.

Apparently unaware of the several articles and letters I wrote on the flood and the failure of the government to account for the huge sums received, the statement asked, “Who was it that exposed the gross mismanagement, discrimination and corruption within the government flood relief programme?” Again I would refer the writers to the exchange of letters and my columns during and immediately after the flood and more recently to a three-part article on the Audit Office in which I reminded the Audit Office that their promised report on the flood accounting has not been issued three years after the disaster. Can I suggest that they ask Mr Corbin to press for the publication of the report? And are they aware that it was a letter dealing with the flood that prompted President Jagdeo to bring a law suit against me?

6. On the broader question of giving credit where credit is due: Just like its counterpart, the PPP/C takes all the credit for free and fair elections, the PNCR wants to take all the credit for statements and actions opposing the excesses of the government – for example, for the Disciplined Forces Commission Report and the exposé of extra-judicial killings. Should the PNCR not at least acknowledge the role of the GHRA? On another example − the court’s decision on the issue of broadcast licences: had the leadership of the PNCR been more willing to go to the courts, rather than claiming that the courts cannot be relied on, that decision may have come much earlier. Perhaps it is that same unwillingness by the top lawyers in the PNCR that led to the lapse of time before any action could be taken on behalf of the hundreds of poor and middle-class, mainly Afro-Guyanese out of their savings in Globe Trust after attorney-at-law Stephen Fraser, economist Professor Clive Thomas and I won a landmark case against the Bank of Guyana for its poor supervision of Globe Trust. In my view this is more than another gap in the knowledge of the architects of the statement but one of the many opportunities the PNCR under Mr Robert Corbin has missed to serve its constituents.

7. On VAT: Of all the absurdities in the statement, the one that takes the cake was the assertion that it was the PNCR and its Leader, Mr Robert Corbin, who pushed the VAT issue to the top of the national agenda. What about Mr CN Sharma, Red Thread and other groups which wrote letters and took to the streets in peaceful demonstrations on the VAT? The party seems to have gone into collective amnesia. Ram & McRae published a Handbook on the VAT and did a consultancy for the PSC on the matter while I appeared before the Special Committee on VAT, wrote several articles on the VAT which were widely quoted by the party and publicly challenged the government on the incorrect rate at which it maintains the VAT. Let me remind the authors that the PNC asked me to present the Technical Paper to the PNC Symposium on VAT at the Hotel Tower in November 2006 and it was that paper which formed the basis of a resolution from the floor mandating the PNC to take certain action. I should add that the party delayed advancing the matter while I was being unsuccessfully persuaded to alter one of my recommendations.

The authors of the statement have done a disservice to the person they sought to defend and to the party. If he was so effective on two of the most significant issues to have confronted the country prior to the 2006 elections – the flood and the announcement of the introduction of VAT – why did the party perform so poorly at the elections? The authors did not address any of the several factual assertions I made in my letter but rather incorrectly considered it an attack on Mr Corbin. The party’s statement is a litany of hearsay, wishful thinking and the imaginations of a creative mind. I therefore find it hard to believe that the statement was approved by Mr Corbin or any of the more informed leaders of the party.

Concerned as I am about our country, I sympathise with the political opposition in their efforts to have the President and his government act strictly in accordance with the constitution; raise the standard of governance and accountability; get meaningful representation on public boards and bodies; reduce corruption; ensure that state resources are not abused for partisan purposes; and above all else, ensure that the interests of the poor are not ignored while the disparity in income and wealth between the haves and have-nots widens.

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Looking back

Sunday, December 21st, 2008

Introduction
Today’s Business Page looks back not over the past year but to some fifteen years ago when on January 8, 1994, Ram & McRae (then Christopher L. Ram & Company) jointly with Ernst & Young Caribbean hosted a seminar ‘Managing for economic recovery.’ Among the persons who made presentations were then Senior Finance Minister Asgar Ally, the regional and international partners of Ernst & Young and Robert McRae and myself from Ram & McRae. With tax reform again being discussed at the national level I thought it appropriate to republish extracts from my presentation at that seminar on the topic ‘Tax reform: a vehicle for economic recovery.’ Some time over the next month or so Business Page will review developments since then and offer suggestions on steps which may seem necessary at this stage.

Role of taxation
Taxation is a major tool of economic management. Properly used it can play a significant role in fixing prices, allocating resources and alleviating social problems by redistribution of income. In the distant days of cheap oil and cheap money, however, serious mis-allocations and distortions were allowed to develop because of poor fiscal and monetary management.

Reality confronted the world and tax reform throughout most of the decade of the ’80s and early ’90s has been a popular cry in many countries of the world transcending continents, economic and political systems and different levels of economic development. In the metropolitan countries most notably the USA and the United Kingdom, the political directorate used tax reform as a way to marshal support for supply side economics, an experiment which emphasised policy measures to affect aggregate supply or potential output.

Across the other side of the world, the Asian tigers had as the objective of their reform increasing the revenues of their nontraditional sectors, a more effective income redistribution, removal of tax-induced incentives for waste and inefficiency and reduction in the transaction cost of transferring resources from the private and public sectors.

In the case of most of the developing countries the thrust for reform has largely been dictated by international lending agencies often in the role of a doctor administering to a sick patient. Unfortunately many of the prescriptions have largely followed wholesale copying of the changes in the metropolitan countries.

Although it is unreasonable to expect government to finance development expenditures while controlling the deficit and reducing inflation, there is little sympathy for administrations which increase taxes. In any case it is certainly not possible to finance development outlays of the public sector by depending entirely on regressive taxes, particularly since there is concentration of income and wealth in the hands of a small proportion of the population. It is unfortunately true that this situation is usually exacerbated in the process of economic development.

Tax ratio
It is usual in considering tax reform to examine the level of taxation in the country and to compare this with other countries. Table 1 [not reproduced] shows that of a random selection of fourteen countries, Guyana ranks number three among the highest taxed countries, well ahead of places like Singapore, Barbados, Trinidad & Tobago, USA, UK and Korea. The ratio for Guyana is almost certain to be unreliable for at least three reasons not all of which move in the same direction:

  1. The development of a culture in which tax evasion became a normal part of everyday life; this was particularly acute among the self employed persons in respect of their compliance with the income tax laws and the business community both in relation to income taxes and custom duties.
  2. Guyana is rated among the hyper-generous countries in the world: A vast array of tax concessions have been granted to a host of interest groups who have therefore benefited to the tune of unquantifiable millions. If the taxes otherwise due were not forgiven then the Tax/GDP ratio would have been even higher.
  3. Estimates of the unreported, unofficial economy suggest that that sector may be as large as the reported economy.

The issue of tax reform
Tax reform in any country cannot be carried out successfully without a clear recognition of the problems facing the country, an understanding of the direction in which it wishes to go and the policies to be pursued in getting there. Taxation is merely an instrument of economic policy and development and the beneficial consequence of taxation requires a clear and cohesive policy.

The discussion of tax reform is concerned as much with the structure of taxes both direct and indirect as it is about the level of taxation. As we have said before, where the figures are unreliable the measurement of the level is in any case meaningless. Tax reform must not be seen only as a revenue matter but as part of the control of the national budget. This therefore raises the issue of expenditure control about which I will just say that the structure of central government expenditure is such that most of the expenditure is at least fixed and cannot be reduced.

Taxation will always be the main source of revenue to most developed countries where the increasing expectations of a long suffering people demand increased not less revenues. However, the introduction of any additional taxes including those resulting from changes in rates or allowances only serve to penalise further those groups, most notably the employed persons and law abiding importers and manufacturers, who comply with the law. A case clearly exists for reform both for improvements in the tax structure and additional revenues. Such reforms should ensure that additional revenues are raised with very little adverse effect.

Tax reform includes winners and losers. The losers are often likely to be those with the greatest resources to resist and defeat reforms. Accordingly popular support, consultation and communication are vital to the reform process.

In seeking change, it must be recognised that the existing tax system is the product of decades of social, political and economic legislation and behaviour. Whilst it may be ideal in a tax reform package to go back to the drawing board and reconstruct all the laws and practices this is impossible to achieve for several reasons:

  • the existing tax system significantly influences current business patterns, relative prices, property values and legitimate vested interest;
  • the will hardly exists among politicians whose planning horizon extends only to the next elections;
  • the technical and other resources are seldom ever available; and
  • the opposition from vested interests and even tax administrators.

There is no such concept as an ideal model tax system which is applicable to all countries at a particular time or for any one country all the time. Tax reform is more a process of adapting to changing social, political and economic demands and priorities rather than a swift movement towards a desired goal.

Experience elsewhere suggests that efficient reform is best achievable by a series of incremental methods rather than by any comprehensive one time reform.

Tax evasion
Tax evasion affects both the Customs and the Inland Revenue Department and although the instances at the Customs Department seem to draw more media attention, the situation among certain groups of income tax payer is perhaps not much better. Although Table 1 [not reproduced] suggests that Guyanese are an overtaxed nation a comparison of the taxes paid by the self employed persons and those paid by employed persons suggests that there must be massive tax evasion by the self employed group. It seems strange that this group which includes professionals, farmers, restaurant and night club operators, traders and unincorporated businesses pays income tax equivalent to 0.44% of the total tax revenue of the country.

Laws exist for dealing with tax evasion but the resources available to the revenue authority are clearly inadequate to deal with the apparent scale of this practice. It is not a matter of laws or penalties for these are already extremely severe. The administrative capability to deal with this crisis must be enhanced by better staffing, training and salaries.

I believe that the bringing together of the two revenue departments under a single umbrella would lead to much more significant revenue collection through co-ordination.

The economy’s structure of financial institutions and procedures will need to be reshaped to aid in tax enforcement. Faceless transactions must be prohibited; an independent and skilled accounting profession must be fostered; specialised law tribunals must be set up to handle tax cases and corruption by public officers must be dealt with firmly.

The system has so far not adapted well to the abolition of the tax exit certificate, the untraceable movement of foreign exchange through the cambio system, and the increasing incidence of short term contractors, consultants and temporary workers.

While some of these recommendations will be unpalatable to many, the danger to society as a whole cannot be dismissed. Concentration of wealth among a small percentage of the society may on the surface appear to be attractive to those benefiting. At some point however, the inequity will result in social backlash from which no one can escape unscathed.

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Mr Corbin has an opportunity to put country and party before personal considerations

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

As the leader of the largest opposition party in the National Assembly, Mr Robert Corbin holds a constitutional office of vital importance. One of the principal features of that office and position is not only primary responsibility for holding the government accountable, but when performed competently, for contributing to the nature, pace and quality of the legislative and social agenda of the country as well as reining in an over-enthusiastic or errant government. Accordingly, what Mr Corbin does or fails to do as Leader of the Opposition and of the main opposition party is not purely a domestic matter for that party and its supporters but is of national importance.

Since Mr Corbin assumed the leadership of the PNCR following the death of Mr Desmond Hoyte in 2002, the party has effectively lost its Reform component, key members of its leadership, electoral support, influence, focus and direction. The emasculation has been so substantial and dramatic that the party has lost credibility and the respect of numerous Guyanese at home and abroad. While the party still calls itself the PNC-Reform, the ‘R’ except for Dr George Norton is gone, several of its leading members including Eric Phillips, Stanley Ming, Jerome Khan, Peter Ramsaroop, Dr Mark Kirton and Ms Supriya Singh having decamped.

Prominent members to have departed from the core party under Mr Corbin’s watch are such energetic, resourceful and young leaders as Sherwood Lowe, Artie Ricknauth, Joseph Hamilton and Ricky Khan. Others to have left include Dr Faith Harding, Ivor Allen, Dr Dalgleish Joseph, John Simon de Freitas and Hamley Case, former Chairman of the Finance Committee. Then of course there have been Desmond Moses and Raphael Trotman who went off to form the AFC, taking with them thousands of traditional PNC votes. Now, the party in the full glare of publicity has unceremoniously and acrimoniously parted company with two of its few remaining able and long-serving members in and out of Parliament, Vincent Alexander and James McAllister.

Under Mr Corbin, the party has effectively gutted itself of talent, political capital and institutional memory which many people believe have weakened it beyond repair in the near future. The best the party can hope for is that many of those who have left can be persuaded to return to rebuild the party, but that seems improbable with Mr Corbin as leader.

Under Mr Corbin’s leadership, the party at the 2006 elections experienced its worst ever electoral performance gaining just 34% of the valid votes cast, down from 42% in 2001. Not without significance is that the theme for those elections was Mr Corbin and his “Promise to make Guyana safe again.”

Mr Corbin’s record as Leader of the Opposition on political, economic and social developments and issues has been remarkably unimpressive. He has been ineffective in the face of persistent breaches of key provisions of the constitution on public finances, presidential powers, rights commissions and the Office of the Ombudsman. Many believe that President Jagdeo finds Mr Corbin extremely malleable, somewhat at his beck and call, to engage in inconclusive discussions on matters which for the most part are only tangential to the pressing issues facing our society and his party’s stated priorities. In sum, there is discomfort, dismay and hopelessness both among the party’s supporters and the wider society about the net effect of Mr Corbin’s leadership.

Mr Corbin is a seasoned politician who has served his party with energy, loyalty and pride for decades. As someone who undoubtedly cares about the future of the party and the direction in which this country is headed, Mr Corbin ought to recognise that the party urgently needs new, capable leadership to save itself from further and terminal damage. Leadership that will generate ideas and exude energy and vitality, none of which he seems capable of offering.

As difficult as it may appear to Mr Corbin, the real test of his leadership would be an admission that he no longer offers to his the party and the combined opposition, the quality of leadership which the circumstances and the state of our democracy require. It is a glorious opportunity for him to demonstrate that he puts country and party before personal considerations.

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Who’s left now? – conclusion

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

The death of socialism
Business Page last week suggested that amidst the cataclysmic dislocation to have rocked the capitalist world first manifested in the housing market in the United States, the response of the governments in the developed market economies is leading to a fundamental rethink of the role of ideology, and in the context of Guyana, raised the question playing on the word ‘left.’ Spreading like wildfire across industries and continents, the dislocation has made it obvious that the crisis goes far beyond the US or its housing market. It has raised troubling questions about the strengths and weaknesses of capitalism and the possibility of the revival of the socialist model of economic development which appeared to have been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union in December 1991.

So fundamental and vast is the problem facing the market economies that not even one trillion dollars has been able to calm the waters with the latest potential casualty being the car industry in the US, with the loss of over 2.5 million jobs directly and indirectly if the Big Three – Ford, Chrysler and General Motors – were to collapse. No longer is there any question of whether the state should get directly involved in the economy but only the extent of that involvement. For close to 20 years the world had this illusion that capitalism had solved the cycle of boom and bust, that regulation was the curse and deregulation and the market were a panacea for all the ills facing economies, that wealth in the form of derivatives could be created out of nothing and that socialism was dead.

Ideology
For some, perhaps simplistically, this all boils down to ideology, itself a misunderstood word that means nothing more that a set of doctrines or beliefs that form the basis of a political, economic or other system. Contrary to popular belief the word is not synonymous with socialism but is rather any underlying set of values and ideas and can embrace market capitalism, co-operativism or even religious fundamentalism. In last week’s column I indicated that at one stage the whole of Guyana, barring a small element, had been converted to socialist ideology by Jagan and Burnham and their respective political parties.

To get an understanding of whether those parties still subscribe to that belief I wrote their respective General Secretaries for answers and clarification about their commitment to socialism, and specifically to the PPP, whether the party gives any direction to the government on the kind of political and economic agenda it should pursue. My specific question to the PNC was whether it promotes and supports a socialist agenda. For whatever reason, neither responded to my letter.

It turned out that the PNC had long ago answered that question. In a letter published in the Stabroek News on January 12, 2002, General Secretary Oscar Clarke wrote that he could “think of no political party which can claim to have reversed itself so profoundly as the PNCR. It has changed its ideology and its economics.” That was as clear as one could be on distancing itself from the socialist agenda to which Burnham had committed that party.

Unclear
The situation with the PPP is far less clear. The party’s constitution defines it as Marxist but the party as government was all too willing to pursue the IMF-inspired Economic Recovery Programme inherited from its predecessor. The late President Jagan may have been uncomfortable having to reverse himself as much as he did in embracing the West to the extent he did, but for his supporters to selectively deal with his writings and his actions to show consistency is disingenuous, if not dishonest. I will respond separately to PPP member Rajendra Rampersaud’s letter in Thursday’s Stabroek News but for now he should refer to page 22 of Poverty Cause and Cure in Developing Countries by the late Dr Jagan. Calling for a “new economic planning strategy [which is] based on an anti-imperialist, pro-democratic and pro-socialist programme,” the late President identified the following ‘cures’:

1. nationalisation of the commanding heights of the economy – foreign and comprador capitalist-owned and controlled mines, plantations, factories, banks, insurance and foreign trade;

2. an almost total centralised planning and control;

3. expansion of the public and co-operative sectors;

4. rent, price and foreign-exchange controls.

These were obviously the very antitheses of the ERP which Dr Jagan’s government pursued on taking office in 1992 and no amount of manipulation of the records could explain this as anything but an about-face which has been taken to new lengths by Jagan’s successors. In this regard the PNC is less ambivalent. It would be more sincere if those who now want to protect or embellish Jagan’s reputation would simply explain that confronted with the prevailing international and domestic reality, he and his party had no choice.

Reversal
The completeness of the reversal by the politicians is seen not only in economic polices but in the legislative agenda; the subjugation of the interest of the worker to that of the employer; a tax structure that imposes low or no taxes on passive income while taxing earned income at punitive rates; the shift from direct to indirect taxes; concessions to business at the expense of the worker; and yes, the concentration of wealth to the business and political class.

Billions are spent annually on tax concessions to employers in exchange for their undertaking to provide employment, as though they do so for some philanthropic or altruistic reasons. The number of gas guzzling 4×4’s that are on the road, the majority with concessions, on a per capita basis is one of the highest in the world. But this practice is not only for the businesspersons. It seems that one of the first acts of a parliamentarian after taking the oath of office is to apply for duty-free concessions valued at millions of dollars to purchase a vehicle. At the exclusive community of the political elite in Pradoville the concentration of duty-free vehicles must easily be the highest in the country, with a one-car family being a rarity. These apparently trivial statistics are a measure by which it can be seen how far our society has been transformed. They are never issues that are ventilated.

Intellectual failure
It was suggested to me that one of the failures of socialism was its inability to respond at an intellectual level to the case made by Reagan and Thatcher for the market, and another was the fear of survival of socialist countries following the collapse of the Soviet Union. There is some merit in those suggestions but why have the economists and leaders of political parties not argued for an economic system, without label if necessary, that does not leave the market in charge or one that does not see the role of the government as being a mere facilitator?

Other than Cuba there are only two countries that have embraced state participation in the economy and those are right here in our region – Venezuela and Bolivia. Meanwhile we in Guyana proudly boast of how successful we have been in nationalising state entities which at the end of the day make us as a country poorer. The problem will come when we have exhausted debt write-off, when there is nothing else to privatize and when there is no further windfall revenue from VAT. For all his faults, when Burnham departed the scene, Guyana was owned and controlled by Guyanese. Now we have no control or influence over resources which have passed into foreign hands often with a bunch of goodies to go with them. To reverse that will not be easy, although we saw, as victims, some of that when CDC pulled out of GPL and Reynolds out of bauxite, leaving us to carry the can and the cost. Paradoxically, that is how it is happening in the developed world as well, as more and more businesses take public money in exchange for ceding some control to the government.

Agnosticism
It seems that Guyana’s policy response to the global economic crisis is to wait, see and hope it does not affect us. That is a naïve approach as we already see prices for our main commodities falling and we may soon see a number of Guyanese from the Caribbean returning as the construction job market dries up. In fact this seems an ideal time for a serious re-think of first the kind of society we would like to have, and second the formulation of the economic model that will take us there. That model will inform the investment policy, the regional and proportional development of the economy, the regulatory systems, taxation and the redistribution of wealth, planning and development and the provision of social services. There is no agnosticism in terms of ideology. A political party that seeks the support of the voters and the opportunity to govern has a duty, and ought to have the courage, to tell the public where they stand on fundamental issues.

The shenanigans of Wall Street, fascination with Fortune’s list of the richest this and richest that, greed and power at any cost have corrupted values and ideas. No longer do governments and parties think they need to believe in anything, once they can build a road here and create a few jobs there.

Conclusion
When a more objective judgment is made, the gains from IMF and neo-liberal policies are far from the impressive successes they seem to be. The benefits of free market liberalisation depend on who you are, your party affiliation and how much money or assets you had to begin with. There is no universal solution to begin with so rather than try to answer the question ‘Who is left now?’ I would prefer to see our political and intellectual leaders take the opportunity of the global meltdown to redefine their vision of our country and formulate a plan for taking us there.

Faced with real choices on issues and ideas I believe that our voters would be better disposed to renounce racial cleavages and start concentrating on ideas and policies. At the moment, the choice seems to be between persons of similar ideological persuasion distinguished only by their race.

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