Month: February 2011

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Making the Stock Exchange work

Introduction
We have not heard much from or about it recently. Passing its offices at High and Robb Streets it is hard to believe that this is the institution that was set up with much hype, expectations and hope that it will make access to capital easier and cheaper, widen shareholder ownership and raise the bar of corporate governance. The Guyana Stock Exchange, or to use its more formal name the Guyana Association of Securities Companies and Intermediaries Inc, was incorporated on June 4, 2001 after several studies with the principal aim of encouraging companies to “go public,” a term generally used to mean companies offering their shares to the public. To encourage such companies the government offered them favourable tax treatment including waiver of duties payable on the transfer of shares in quoted companies and exemption from Capital Gains Tax on gains made on the disposal of shares in public companies.

The Stock Exchange has had only limited success, being largely ignored by the government and failing to attract any attention from this Finance Minister. With a private sector body that seems to have a view only if prompted by the government, its chief spokespersons in the Private Sector Commission have been similarly silent. In fact I find it hard to believe from any of their utterances that they even remember that the exchange exists.

Access to capital
This column has constantly proclaimed the importance and possibilities of a vibrant and functioning stock exchange to a market economy. Real interest rates, ie, the rate charged over the rate of inflation is still extremely high and actually discourages borrowings by the business community since the cost of funds make many investments unattractive ab initio. Then we have the government’s endless policy of mopping up liquidity that costs the taxpayers billions of dollars in interest payments. This policy encourages the financial intermediaries to make their money by charging high rates of interest on one class of lending – its borrowings group – thereby making it financially justifiable to invest the rest in government securities at rates that are less than the rate of inflation. But since the government does not see this, the private sector is automatically handicapped.

This in no ways suggests that the commercial banks should open their vaults to all and sundry or indeed that it is sensible to do so. Financed mainly by customers’ deposits, banks and other deposit taking financial institutions operate like trustees, and it takes only a couple of their larger loans to go bad to create havoc with their financial results and balance sheets. More recently the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism Act 2009 has added to the challenges and risks facing such entities, since the act requires lenders to have the most intimate detail about their customers.

‘Well done, Mr Minister’
Dr Ashni Singh wrapped up the debate on the 2011 budget by sweeping and disparaging remarks about the parliamentary opposition’s poor contribution during the debate. Yet, his budget speeches are themselves devoid of any real underlying vision or philosophy, more rhetoric than substance, and even in budget measures there was clearly a failure to apply any intellect or effort at analysis. It is disrespectful and arrogant of Dr Singh to believe that he alone has the capacity to speak or think through a proper national budget. In fact had it not been for the annual stealing of VAT from the people of this country, the ineptitude of the President and his successive Finance Ministers would have been on national display.

In none of his four budget speeches has Dr Singh shown any understanding of the role of a stock exchange or concern about its failure to take off, or to explore and exploit the opportunities and possibilities which a stock exchange can bring. Has the PSC not seen this or the National Competitiveness Council or the Chamber of Commerce or anyone else? Would Dr Singh include them as part of that group that makes no constructive contribution to the budget, or is their endorsement, “Well done Mr Minister,” what he considers constructive criticism?

If only we were more imaginative and innovative, if only we understand that there is trading in government paper all year round, if only we really believed that the private sector is the engine of growth and a functioning capital market its fuel, GPS and steering system, we will still be able to bring the stock exchange back to life.

As the stock exchange enters its eighth year of operation, policy holders may wish to look at the steps taken by Jamaica, where its exchange too had slowed almost to a crawl. Jamaica’s answer was the creation of a Junior Stock Exchange that within a couple of years has seen eight companies entering the market with another ten lined up for listing in 2011.

A brief history
The Exchange began trading on July 8, 2003 at which time the market value of the shares of companies to be traded was approximately $17.7 billion. At December 31, 2010, this had increased to $69.4 billion. Trading on the Exchange has been slow not only because the concept of public ownership of shares is still not strongly promoted or embraced, but also because many of the country’s public companies are controlled companies and the number of shares available for trading is therefore limited. Yet, the total value of trades on the Exchange since its inception has exceeded two billion dollars with four companies accounting for 83% – Banks DIH, (50%); DEMTOCO (13.2%), DDL (10.8%); and GBTI (10.7%).

That is confirmed by the following chart which shows the number of shares traded by year (the acronyms are expanded in the table following).

DIH – Banks DIH Limited
CCI – Caribbean Container Inc.
CBI – Citizens Bank Guyana Inc.
DBL – Demerara Bank Limited
DDL – Demerara Distillers Limited
DTC – Demerara Tobacco Company Limited
BTI – Guyana Bank for Trade and Industry Limited
PHI – Property Holdings Inc.
GSI – Guyana Stockfeeds Inc.
RBL – Republic Bank (Guyana) Limited
SPL – Sterling Products Limited

Source: Guyana Stock Exchange

Another expectation was that the Stock Exchange would have a positive impact on share prices. In the first couple of years the results exceeded expectations with substantial increases on the prices of almost every company with gains ranging from 29% to 500% in one extreme case. The market made adjustments for the shares in Demerara Tobacco Limited, the Guyana Bank for Trade and Industry and Republic Bank Limited, while a significant movement in the shares of Banks DIH Limited accompanied the interest in the take-over of that company by the Trinidad company Ansa McAl.

To be continued

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There is a gap of between 15,000 and 19,000 who are paid the Old Age Pension but are not entitled under the law

Minister of Human Services Ms Priya Manickchand behaved with apoplectic rage in response to a conclusion in a report by her parliamentary colleague Mrs Sheila Holder that the number of persons to whom the Old Age Pension (OAP) is paid is inflated by 17,640 (phantom persons, according to Mrs Holder) with a loss to the state of over $1.3 billion.

Ms Manickchand reacted badly too to a cartoon in the Stabroek News of January 27 depicting her unflatteringly, prompting a letter by her which appeared with another by Mr Ivelaw Henry, her Chief Statistical Officer, both on the same day in the Stabroek News (Saturday, Jan 29) challenging Mrs Holder’s numbers. They both cited in support of the numbers being challenged projections done in November 2006 by a Mr Sonkarley T Beaie, who is described as a UN demographics expert and the holder of an MPhil, perhaps with a view to impress us.

To understand the conflicting positions, it is convenient to address three separate but related issues – statistics, the legal framework for the payment of OAP, and the arrangements in place for the payment of Old Age Pensions.

The most recent census done in 2002 shows the following data in relation to persons 65 years and over:

Between censuses, the country’s mid-year population is tracked by the Bureau of Statistics from data on births, deaths and migration, and is reported on in an appendix to the annual Budget Speech by the Minister of Finance. This is what the Bureau of Statistics reports for the years following the 2002 census: 2003 – 752,500; 2004 – 755,100; 2005 – 757,600; 2006 – 760,200; 2007 – 763,200; 2008 – 766,200, 2009 – 769,600, 2010 – 777,900.

One must always be cautious about population data and even more careful about making assumptions from them. I therefore wonder why instead of taking the actual population figure Mr Henry and his Minister chose to rely on Mr Beaie’s increasingly incorrect projections which for total population in 2010 were “wrong” by 10,000. It is fair to say that any major change in the characteristics of a population – other than through migration, a plague or a baby boom – takes place very slowly. From 1980 to 1991 the shift in the over 65 age group was a 0.16 percentage point and from 1991 to 2002 it was a 0.12 percentage point as shown in the table above. Even if we generously assume that the percentage of that group as a percentage of the current population has climbed to 4.5%, the maximum number of persons eligible for OAP would be approximately 35,000, or 7,000 less than the “around 42,000” the Minister of Finance referred to on more than one occasion in his Budget Speech.

That is not the end of the story, since not every person 65 and over is entitled to OAP. The Old Age Pensions Act sets as the conditions for eligibility for OAP that the person must have: (a) attained the age of sixty-five years; (b) been a citizen for ten years; (c) been ordinarily resident in Guyana during the last twenty years; and (d) passed a means test based on income and assets. Therefore any returnee to Guyana before 1991 is not entitled to a pension because of condition (c) and many if not most of the senior citizens living in Courida Park, Queenstown, Pradoville, Oleander Gardens, Republic Park, former senior public servants, professionals including doctors and lawyers, etc, are not entitled under condition (d).

We all have and know of countless others of our friends and relatives and their parents who do not claim Old Age Pensions. These would include persons 65 and over in the population not entitled to on account of their income and/or assets, plus those who are entitled to but do not claim because they do not know they qualify, plus those not entitled because they returned to Guyana less than twenty years ago. Those probably number between 8,000 and 12,000. To get to the number who meet all the tests, we need to deduct these from the maximum, theoretical 35,000, leaving between 23,000 and 27,000 persons who are entitled. This means that there is a gap of between 15,000 and 19,000 who are paid, but who are not entitled to the pension under the law.

At the current rate of $7,500, between $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion is being paid out unlawfully each year.

A recent Value-For-Money audit done by the Audit Office identifies a host of accounting and audit issues that could have given rise to the wide gap.

While the Audit Office must be commended for undertaking the exercise, it is regrettable that it did not attempt to put in dollar terms the range of values involved in its findings, and that it did not look at the related public assistance programme that is subject to even fewer rules and is more politicised and corrupted.

Let us put the calculation into perspective. If Old Age Pensions were paid only to persons legally entitled, then each pensioner could easily receive another $4,000 to $6,000 per month out of the money allocated in the 2011 Budget.

Ms Manickchand should now be willing to make her list publicly available for scrutiny.