{"id":2953,"date":"2026-01-09T11:08:32","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T15:08:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/?p=2953"},"modified":"2026-01-09T11:08:32","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T15:08:32","slug":"deportees-trump-and-the-price-of-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/?p=2953","title":{"rendered":"Deportees, Trump and the price of oil"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Business and Economic Commentary by Christopher Ram<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Government of Guyana has announced that it has agreed to accept foreign deportees from the United States \u2013 persons who are not Guyanese nationals. The announcement was made calmly, almost casually \u2013 by one of the \u201cfamily\u201d \u2013 as if it were a routine domestic arrangement. There was no explanation of the legal basis for such an agreement, no disclosure of its terms, and no acknowledgement of its implications for Guyana\u2019s immigration laws, internal security, or sovereignty. There was no parliamentary debate and no public consultation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet this decision must not be treated as a technical matter. US President Doland Trump has made it clear that he does not regard international law, multilateral agreements, or established norms as binding on the United States, rejecting even frameworks that his own country previously championed. In Trump\u2019s world, power is not limited by law or institutions but only by his personal morality \u2014 a position he has stated explicitly and acted upon repeatedly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump world<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is against this backdrop of unilateralism, coercion, and transactional dominance that Guyana\u2019s decision must be understood, not as a neutral administrative arrangement, but as an accommodation made in Trump\u2019s world where rules are increasingly replaced by raw power. A world in which there is open contempt for international law (if at all), of multilateral institutions, and of the sovereignty of weaker states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump has already signalled his willingness to discard global norms at will. He has informed the OECD that the United States will not be bound by the 15% global minimum tax. He has pulled out of almost every international institution not in the US\u2019 interest. And has made it clear that international rules apply to others, not to America. Power, in his worldview, is constrained only by his own judgement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nowhere is this clearer than in Venezuela.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Without even a murmur from our otherwise talkative CARICOM leaders, including our own President Irfaan Ali, Trump\u2019s administration has used brute military force in the Caribbean, resulting in the deaths of civilians off the Venezuelan coast. U.S. forces seized the leader of a sovereign state and removed him and his wife in handcuffs. This was not multilateral action, not international law enforcement, and not humanitarian intervention. It was unilateral power, exercised openly and without restraint. The Caribbean as a zone of peace has become a zone of fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is oil, stupid<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Trump himself, it is all about oil. The United States has effectively taken control of the world\u2019s largest proven oil reserves. Trump has announced that Venezuelan oil fields will be restored, production ramped up, exports controlled, and prices influenced \u2014 with him deciding how much revenue will be returned to the Venezuelan people. This is not regime change in disguise. It is resource capture unlike any seen for more than several decades. It makes Afghanistan, Iraq and Grenada look like exercises in restraint by comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is not finished. He has shown himself willing to overturn democratic outcomes at home, to threaten friendly states abroad, and to redraw spheres of influence as if international law were an inconvenience. He speaks casually of peace with Russia while demanding a substantial share of Ukraine\u2019s future in return. He does not need international law. He is international law. His narcissism has led to the so-called Donroe Doctrine, infinitely worse than the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 which the US claimed the Caribbean as its sphere of influence. But the Caribbean is not enough. He wants Greenland and maybe, later, Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And it is at precisely this moment that Guyana appears eager not only to accept foreign deportees at Washington\u2019s request, but also to deepen defence cooperation with the same administration now destabilising the region. We refused renegotiation of the 2016 Agreement in place of sovereignty. Now we surrender our dignity, our laws, our patrimony posing as neutrality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More oil less money<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That brings us to the most immediate and dangerous consequence for Guyana.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Donald Trump has announced his intention to use Venezuelan oil to drive the global price of crude down to US$50 per barrel. If he succeeds \u2013 and there is no effective international mechanism to prevent it \u2013 the impact on Guyana will be severe. At this price, Guyana\u2019s oil revenue will collapse. The State would receive approximately US$1 per barrel in royalty and about US$7.50 in profit oil. With NRF funding accounting for 50% of the National Budget, we will experience increased and unsustainable budget deficits -or raid the NRF.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Government would face three options, none of them attractive: heavy and expensive borrowing, sharp expenditure cuts, and drastic shortage of foreign exchange. Borrowing on that scale would undermine debt sustainability. Spending cuts would fall on wages, social programmes, infrastructure, and transfers \u2013 areas that have expanded rapidly in anticipation of sustained oil revenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Foreign exchange shortages would follow quickly. With oil inflows reduced, the supply of U.S. dollars would tighten just as import demand remains high. Pressure on the exchange rate would intensify. The cost of food, fuel, medicine, and construction materials would rise sharply. Inflation would not be a statistical abstraction; compounding the already his cost of living, the poor would suffer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

America hasn\u2019t always been a friend of Guyana. Just read The West on Trial. As we turn our backs on countries that supported us during our darkest days, let us not forget our past. Guyana needs to face the dangers of the path of accommodation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It must read the winds that can blow our house down. The finance minister hinted at an oil price adjustment in his mid-year report. That was before Trump had got his hands on Venezuela\u2019s oil. The whole vision of One Guyana will evaporate. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Business and Economic Commentary by Christopher Ram Introduction The Government of Guyana has announced that it has agreed to accept foreign deportees from the United States \u2013 persons who are not Guyanese nationals. The announcement was made calmly, almost casually \u2013 by one of the \u201cfamily\u201d \u2013 as if it were a routine domestic arrangement. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Deportees, Trump and the price of oil”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[313],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2953","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-business-and-economic-commentary"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","wps_subtitle":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p3L0nt-LD","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2953","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2953"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2953\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2954,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2953\/revisions\/2954"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2953"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2953"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.chrisram.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2953"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}