Category: The Road to First Oil

Introduction

It has been over one month since the Ministry of Finance tabled in the National Assembly a fifty-one page document which it claims presents “preliminary proposals” to stimulate discussion on its plan for managing the flows from petroleum operations following first oil estimated to flow by the end of the first quarter of 2020. Central to the proposal are what is called the “fiscal rule”, embodied in the second element and that is a Natural Resource Fund to be established under a Natural Resource Fund Act.

I have projected that revenue from petroleum within the next calendar decade will account for approximately eighty percent of government revenues with both negative and positive implications for generations to come. Will we go the way of so many countries of which Nigeria, Venezuela and Democratic Republic of the Congo seem to be the poster children, unable to use their natural resources to improve the wellbeing of their people, reduce the wealth and income gap and fairly distribute their patrimony among all their people – born and unborn? Or could we follow the path of Chile and Botswana which have used very similar resources but pursuing a very different path, to transform their countries and the lives of their people? Of course in so many ways, Singapore, without any natural resources, has been an outstanding example, if not of a political model, but of what inspired vision and leadership can do for a country. Continue reading “Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana Must Become Oil-Minded (Part 57)”

Introduction

The 2016 Petroleum Agreement has been a source of grief, anger, disbelief and shock to the average Guyanese whether living inside or outside Guyana. The insulting 2% royalty, the contrived US$18 million for legal fees masked as a signing bonus, and the Government paying the oil companies’ corporation tax liability have evoked extremely strong emotions. It cannot be surprising therefore that some commentators find the Agreement so lopsided that they wonder publicly whether the Government will get anything out of the Contract, as least for some time to come.

In my opinion that extreme level of pessimism is not only not justified but is actually counterproductive.

On the other side of the coin are those like Dr. Henry Jeffrey and Professor Clive Thomas who advocate for direct, unconditional cash payments. In contrast with the pessimists, Thomas boldly mentioned the figure of US$5,000 per household per year which would cost over US$1 billion per year. Later on, Mr. Tacuma Ogunseye moderated Thomas’ generous call by placing a ceiling of 2% to 5% of the gross revenue of Government to meet Thomas’ call. Continue reading “Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana Must Become Oil-Minded (Part 56)”

Introduction

Recall that Column # 54 published in this column last week cited two Emancipation Day speeches, one from President Granger which was discussed at some length in the same column. The other was by Professor Clive Thomas, an economic adviser to the President and co-leader of the WPA, which is a member of the APNU+ AFC Coalition. The press reported that the Professor called on his Party to lobby and support cash payments to every single household as their share of the benefits of oil and gas in terms of cash or cheque received in their accounts.

Events this past week have served to confuse Thomas’ remarks and whether the only figure reported from his speech of “US$5,000 per year or whatever it works out at” was loose, careless or worse yet, reckless, given his standing as an economist of considerable repute. Known for his rather conservative style when speaking as an economist, the audience appears to have reacted most positively to his suggestion. Surprisingly, much of the criticism came from his colleagues in the APNU and the AFC with former Chairman of the AFC Mr. Nigel Hughes immediately challenging the Professor. Continue reading “Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana Must Become Oil-Minded (Part 55)”

Introduction

Events marking Emancipation Day saw two significant statements from two leading Afro-Guyanese leaders, President David Granger and Professor Clive Thomas. Speaking to different audiences, President Granger who is also leader of the PNCR, the APNU and the APNU+AFC Coalition, called on the Afro-Guyanese community to cease idling and depending on others for money. By contrast, in a Panel discussion in the politically significant East Coast Demerara village of Buxton, Professor Thomas, an economic adviser to the President and co-leader of the WPA, a member in the Coalition, called on his Party to lobby and support cash payments to every single household as their share of the benefits of oil and gas in terms of cash or cheque received in their accounts.

To add to an issue which might loom large in the politics of Guyana, former AFC Chairman Mr. Nigel Hughes, speaking at the same forum with Dr. Thomas, advised caution and called for “a discussion based on data rather than hot air”, asking rhetorically about the criteria and the assessment benchmarks to be used going forward, so that the issue is not reduced to discussions. Continue reading “Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana Must Become Oil-Minded (Part 54)”