Author: Christopher Ram

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Business and Economic Commentary by Christopher Ram – Part 2

February 16, 2024

The Stock market and mean dividend policy

Share Price

Many years ago, the PPP administration sort to make the issue and investment of shares in public companies an attractive proposition, exempting from capital gains tax the gain any transfer of shares. That is on top of a change in the law during the Desmond Hoyte administration when dividends paid on shares in Guyana companies were made nontaxable. We also saw the advent of the Stock Exchange in 2003.

This second Economic Commentary looks at the more recent performance of the Guyana Stock Exchange measured by what is called the Stock Exchange Index or in Guyana’s case the market capitalisation, measured by adding the total of the issued shares of each of the companies whose shares are traded on the Exchange times the unit price for those shares. By this measure, the market capitalisation at January 2024 was $795,207 million, down 25% from a high of $1,062 213 million at July 2022. As stock exchanges go that is quite significant, made worse by the fact that public companies, particularly the larger ones, have been reporting massive increases in profits.

Trying to put this into some kind of context is equally bewildering. Between January 2021 and July 2022, the market capitalisation had increased from $397,067 million, translating into an increase of $665,146 million or 68%. It is difficult, perhaps impossible, to identify let alone justify the circumstances accounting for this meteoric rise and Icarian tumble. What is not difficult is to understand the impact on those pension funds and other institutional investors, especially those which had adjusted their investments and calculated their actuarial assets and liabilities based on July 2022 balances.     

The six companies that mirrored these changes are listed in the Table below. As can be seen, the largest movement between January 2021 and January 2024 are Demerara Bank Limited by an unbelievable 301% followed by Demtoco and GBTI in treble digits, Banks DIH Limited (97%) by DDL (79%) and RBL 12%.

Source of Information: Guyana Stock Exchange Website and Public Companies Annual Reports. Stated in Guyana Dollars except for Percentages.

Between July 2022 and July 2024, the price of the shares in Demtoco and GBTI had a more terrestrial growth of 6% and of 9%. For the others, the slide was: DemBank was 28.7%, Banks was 39%; DDL was 48.8% and RBGL was 13.6%.

Because of the lack of investment opportunities, and the total absence of new shares over more than 25 years, shareholders tend to hold on to their shares and not many shares change hands. Had this not been the case, the logical thing for small shareholders especially to do would be to sell their shares while the price is still relatively good. One sympathises with those shareholders who did not cash in on the high prices at July 2022 and now see the value of their shares in many of the companies having fallen by significant percentages. The hope for a quick recovery is to expect more on sentiments than objective fundamentals such as higher dividends. .   

Dividend payout

I previously commented adversely on the low payout ratio of dividends to market price which in the case of the twins – Banks DIH and DDL – are some of the lowest in the country. There are two consequences of this stingy dividend policy: a low dividend yield and a high level of retained/accumulated profits. Of our top six companies DDL has the worst dividend yield (0.5%) with GBTI and RBGL – two banks at 1.6%, while Demerara Bank is 0.6%. A decent dividend yield should be around 2.5% – 4 %, depending on the maturity of the company, among other factors.

A low dividend yield should affect share price since the company is not an attractive proposition for persons hoping to earn dividend income. That’s the type of thing that no chairman does not ever raise at shareholders’ meeting or even want its small shareholders to know.

The other consequence is that the company does not ever need to raise by the fresh issue of shares or develop a good mix of financing from equity, long-term and short-term debts. There is a rule of thumb that the company can have debt equivalent to four times equity. But instead, our public companies use shareholders’ funds to finance capital expenditure. For example, DDL ten years ago, had $4.7 Bn in debt. Now it is nil. The repayment of those debts and subsequent capital expenditure have come from shareholders’ funds.

Let us take one other metric as a measure of a company’s dividend policy. And that is the number of years of most recent dividend cover measured by the distributable accumulated profits. Meaning that even if they make no profits for those years, they would still be able to pay a dividend. Again, it is DDL with the most dividend cover in reserve (35 years), followed by Banks DIH (29 years), Dembank (24 years) and GBTI (19 years).

Table showing changes in Retained Earnings and Dividends Paid Performance Summary

Source of Information: Guyana Stock Exchange Website and Public Companies Annual Reports. Stated in Guyana Dollars.

Shareholders have to demand more from their directors and the so-called independent and institutional directors must show some regard for the small shareholders.

Next week, we do a detailed analysis of Banks DIH Annual Report for 2023.

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Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana Must Become Oil-Minded – Column 121 – February 16, 2024

ExxonMobil and Politics

Exxon is no stranger to politics. It understands the importance of billboards (India and Guyana) and the politics of Buses (the USA and the Tories BREXIT bus). Just in case anyone missed it, Exxon is now on a bus tour across the country to encourage communication with the public, promote employment opportunities and, according to a report in the media, to share information about the company’s operations and to ask questions. On the face of it, nothing is intrinsically wrong with the Bus Tour. Yet, there are some obvious concerns. Where is Hess and where is CNOOC and is this an Exxon only initiative? Did the oil company think that out of courtesy, it needed to discuss this with the Government?

It is hard to accept this as a mere public relations gimmick. Exxon has shown itself to be untrustworthy and unwilling to share information with a more informed public. Any information exchange will be more like propaganda delivered in the most cynical and contemptuous manner. We are all too well aware how the GGMC boss was treated in Texas, how Granger and Trotman buckled in front of Exxon’s officials, and witness how it treats the Government like a bedfellow, and the public as enemies with whom no information should ever be shared.

This tour brings to mind a willingness on the part of EXXON to play popular games with the people of Guyana, in an electoral environment in which both the PPP and the APNU have shown themselves absolutely unwilling to account for collections for elections. Exxon has ready cash with decades of clandestine experience in engaging in the political arena. So, the real question is whether and how Exxon plans to engage the political parties by making significant contributions to one party and offer crumbs to the other for the 2025 elections.  

Steve Coll’s book, appropriately titled Private Empire ExxonMobil and American Power, offers us some insight. It describes Exxon’s overt political action via what is called a Political Action Committee (PAC) and particularly its role in supporting the Republicans for the 2008 elections. The PAC invested $722,000 on candidates for federal political office, which amount might not seem particularly significant, but the real interest is in how the money was shared between the two parties. .

Only twenty-eight of the 207 recipients of Exxon Mobil P.A. C. contributions during the 2008 cycle were Democrats; in dollar terms, ExxonMobil gave just 11 percent of its money to Democrats. In fact, the corporate P.A.C. gave more heavily to Republicans than did the company’s employees when they made donations as individuals. Political contributions between 2000 and 2008 by individuals who declared an affiliation with ExxonMobil on disclosure forms-included Tillerson, Cohen, and other senior executives – totaled $I.22 million.

Exxon was not shy about its role – an executive involved in political spending decisions said that the PAC outfit was business-oriented, and it was looking for candidates who are pro-business. One of its mailings boldly proclaimed: “Electing people who will pursue policies that are good for our industry and make sense for our families is an important responsibility,”  This confirms some things we in Guyana have come to know. Exxon has no scruples, no red line, no moral compass and no threshold which it should not cross.

There is no such concept a PAC in Guyana and anything goes when it comes to donations to political parties, which we all know are not shy to accept moneys from all and sundry. The expectation then is that Exxon will play a part in elections financing in all forms, whether in paying for information and analytic specialists, printing, give away material and of course cash. The most troubling cause to worry is that there is nothing anyone can do about it.

GECOM is not interested in how democracy has become a commodity in Guyana, where there are no rules. The PPP/C and the APNU will always have excuses for taking money from tax evaders, money launderers and anyone else. For Exxon, there is a lot at stake, which is a wonderful and convenient environment.

No doubt, Exxon would prefer not to have to deal with the continuous stream of negative publicity which it receives almost on a daily basis. But it is fortified in the knowledge that Aubrey Norton, the Leader of the Opposition, after more than three years, has no understanding or position on the 2016 Agreement, the audits, the environment or the petroleum operations. And that the Government people, without exception, are its biggest defenders and protectors, willing to do its bidding.

It is not that Exxon necessarily like any of the two but the protection of the 2016 Agreement with all its benefits is the most important thing for the company. It needs to ensure that it can secure that blind support and for that it will do anything.

It is unclear whether the Bus Tour has received clearance from the Government. It is even an idea which it can share with Robb Street.

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Govt’s case against teachers strike defenceless

The Teachers’ strike enters its second week beginning tomorrow. The planning and execution by the leadership of the Guyana Teachers Union and the passion and energy demonstrated by the striking teachers across the Regions suggest the preparation for a long struggle. The Government on the other hand appears to be all over the place – literally and figuratively – and suggests that it is playing a waiting and words game.  

President Irfaan Ali tells the teachers to be patient – he will look after them gradually and that things will be all right after 2027. Assuming of course that the price of oil will continue on its recent boom trajectory. The Vice President says he is not worried – the striking Region Six teachers will vote for the PPP/C in 2025, apparently claiming their indentureship to the Party. The AG recognises the teachers’ constitutional right to strike but leaving unaddressed the unconstitutionality of wage imposition, an ignominious practice this Administration shares with its predecessor. And Minster of Education and MP Datadin boast of this Administration’s generous salary increases since it came to power. It does not appear that they recognise that the increases have a crude average of less than 7% per annum over five years.

Notwithstanding its apparent collective resolve, the Government’s case is constitutionally, legally, morally and practically weak and defenseless. On the constitutional and legal question, the Constitution and the Trades Union Recognition Act are clear. The Government as an employer, must go through the recognised unions. That imperative arose following a court ruling during the labour struggles under Forbes Burnham. This Administration must not try to outdo Burnham in dictatorial instincts and practice.

The VP can show that he is not spiteful by using his residual powers as an immediate step, to restore the deduction of union dues, which the Government will have to do as part of any settlement anyway. He, more than anyone of the current government leaders, was involved in and is aware of the impact of the 1999 strike by public servants. He must know too that the current leadership of the GTU is even better than the GPSU leadership in the nineties, and that the argument in those days about the inflationary impact of a significant wage increase was completely misplaced.

The Ministry of Education has put out a table of increases in salaries to various levels of teachers over the past five years, presumably to show how well they are paid. (I thank the Ministry for saving me the research). Here is my brief interpretation and contextualisation of those numbers. The increases over the period of 2019 – 2024 average 33%, ranging from 23% for the Principals of the Technical Institutes in Georgetown (GTI) and Linder (LTI) and Cyril Potter College of Education, to 39% for a Graduate HM of a Grade D school.

Now, compare that with other numbers put out by the Government. Over the same period, GDP has grown by roughly 310%, capital expenditure by 905% and current expenditure by 198%. It is difficult to deduce from these numbers a recognition of the importance of teachers for our country and economy, or a basic understanding by the Government of their own numbers. The contrast with contractors, many of whom pay no taxes, and with speeding up poorly planned and executed construction work cannot be starker.

With ministerial salaries almost doubled by tax-free allowances, they are out of touch with the skyrocketing cost of living affecting everyone. The collective Cabinet seems unable to understand and appreciate that for one thousand dollars in increase to teachers, more than $300 comes back to the Government in the form of income tax and value-added tax. That means that every $3,000 salary adjustment will cost the Government and benefit the teachers only $2,000. And they do not seem to understand that to measure the impact of the strike in percentages of non-striking teachers is fallacious and misinformed. The absence of the striking teachers will exacerbate the existing shortages in almost every classroom and that even 20% of striking teachers will cause total disruption in the school.

This may not, however, affect many of the children of government ministers and officials who can afford to send their children to private schools, and even abroad. The statements by the President, the VP and their ministers show at best how little they understand and worse, that they do not care.

Christopher Ram

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Business and Economic Commentary by Christopher Ram – Part 1

February 9, 2024

The Stock Market Share Price Mystery and Conflict of Interest

Beginning with the exchange between the Chairman and a shareholder at Banks DIH Limited Annual General Meeting held on 27 January 2024, there appears to have been much interest in the share prices of public companies. In fact, this writer holds the view that because of a quirk in how prices of shares are determined on the Stock Exchange; the terrible illiquidity in the marketplace for shares, the awful and inexplicable dividend policy of companies and the lack of investment opportunities, the demand for the few shares offered for sale, the prices of the shares of several of the companies cannot be easily justified.

Here is a picture of the share price movements of eight of the public companies over the period January 2019 to December 2023. With an acknowledged anomaly in the shares of Caribbean Container Inc.(see S/N letter column of 8 February, 2024, I consider it prudent to exclude the figures for that company.

Source: Guyana Stock Exchange website

Expressed another way, according to the Stock Exchange website the overall capitalisation of the stock market between the two dates moved from  $301,412 Mn. to $819,884 Mn. or 172%. What is clear is that for some reason the market has begun an adjustment moving from a  $1,062,213 Mn. in July 2022 to  $819,884 Mn. in December 2023, a decline of 23%.

If in fact, this trend continues, the consequences can be severe for pension funds and insurance companies which would be undesirable. The people who are best placed to bridge the gap between what might be a realistic price and the traded price are those companies which have been hoarding profits instead of rewarding shareholders for their loyalty and who have been funding their capital programmes out of retained profits, such as DDL and others who have large liquid balances, including with their banks, such as Banks DIH. 

Another possibility is for companies to buy back their shares as permitted under the Companies Act, a practice largely unknown in Guyana. Another possibility is for the commercial banks to pay a more economic rate of interest on deposits. Currently, if shareholders were to take advantage of the share price bubble and sell their shares, there are few alternative saving or investment opportunities. It was part of the PPP/C mantra that commercial banks should start narrowing the spread between the interest they pay and the interest they charge as the Bank of Guyana has had some success with trading in foreign exchange. 

This column will be monitoring developments over the next few months as public companies publish their financial statements and shareholders and the public get a better understanding of their operations. For now, I will do a brief overview of the framework in place for the regulation of public companies.

The most basic of these is the Companies Act under which local companies are incorporated here while foreign companies can either incorporate in Guyana or register as a branch.  The Bank of Guyana is also the regulator for both the banking sector and the insurance sector. All public companies must also comply with the Securities Industry Act which creates the Securities Council to exercise oversight over them.

Then there is the Guyana Stock Exchange which provides a platform for the trading of shares in public companies. The Stock Exchange is a private company which operates through a handful of member firms – Trust Company (Guyana) Ltd, Guyana Americas Merchant Bank Inc, Beharry Stockbrokers Ltd and Hand-in-Hand Trust Corporation Inc.   

This seems to pose an immediate conflict of interest, something that is anathema in the financial world but all too familiar and widely accepted in Guyana. Trust Company has a very, very close relationship with DDL, Hand – Hand Trust with Banks DIH and Guyana Americas Merchant Bank Inc, Beharry Stockbrokers Ltd with the Beharry Group which includes two public companies – GBTI and Sterling Products Limited..

The apparent conflict does not end there. Trust Company and Hand – in – Hand Trust also manage pension funds which hold significant investments in public companies. If there was a major realignment in share prices, they would have some serious questions to answer.

Next week, we will look at the dividend policies of these public companies and why we think they companies can pay mush higher dividends.

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A serious problem with the CCI share price

Dear Editor,

One of our other public companies – Caribbean Container Inc. (CCI) – seems to have an even more serious problem with its share price than Banks DIH Limited does. Between the Stock Exchange (GASCI) trading session 1007 on 20 February 2023 and trading session 1057 on 5 February 2024, the price of CCI’s shares has skyrocketed from $40 to $200. There is nothing in the fundamentals of that company (see Table below) that could conceivably justify anything close to this 400% increase in the share price over a 1-year period. In fact, if we go back one year earlier to 27 June 2022 when the price was $15, the increase is a staggering 1,233%!

The only noteworthy development in the Company is the leasing of part of its property which will generate a steady flow of income in the immediate future.   

Source of Information: Annual Reports and GASCI Website

The principal shareholders in the company are Demerara Holdings Inc., whose ultimate beneficial owner is the estate of its former Managing Director, which owns 85.92% of CCI’s shares, and Secure International Inc., a Beharry Group company which owns 5.16%.  The Securities Industry Act requires disclosure of 5% or more.

The number of shares traded between February last year and this month to date, was 66,400 and between 27 June 2022, that number was 90,200. For completeness, the average number of shares traded over eighteen sessions was 3,688 shares. This represents just 0.059 % of the 150,916,595 shares in issue. It ought not to be that transactions involving 0.059% of shares in issue can move the share price by 1,233%! While this is an extreme case, such distortions are not unique to CCI as the trading records of DDL and Banks DIH show. 

I am not suggesting any insider dealing or other improper conduct on the part of any person, including CCI’s management. But rather that something is wrong with the working of our Stock Exchange, its shareholdings, market participants and shareholder and investor education. There is a lot of blame to go around, including misleading information in annual reports and peddled by chairpersons of public companies.

Part of the solution lies in meaningful reform but efforts to get successive governments to pay attention to both GASCI and the Securities Exchange have produced little or no fruit. I am hopeful that the recent comments published in the Stabroek News on Banks DIH Inc. and now this extreme disclosure will stir the powers that be into some meaningful action.

An immediate course of action would be for the Stock Exchange to immediately suspend trading of shares in this company, and to make inquiries and appropriate recommendations. We cannot at the same time boast of a world class economy and have an imperfectly functioning Stock Exchange. 

Christopher Ram