Introduction
After all the fears of economic Armageddon, the Great Depression Mark II and no recovery until after mid-2010, the economies of the world have bounced back, and for the economists at least, the recession is over. So is it safe to pop the champagne and celebrate? That may be just a bit premature. As Newsweek, the US weekly notes, when economists proclaim a recession over, they’re celebrating a technicality: they mean economic output has stopped contracting. Readers who have been following Professor Clive Thomas would know the globally accepted definition of recession is the “two quarter” decline in economic output, but this definition is not accepted by all economists as it ignores key economic variables such as unemployment rates, consumer confidence and spending. In the US the agency that is officially in charge of declaring a recession in the United States is known as the National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER. The NBER defines a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months.”
So how exactly are the world’s economies faring and how did the world avoid the worst fear – the collapse of capitalism – and why did the Great Recession not turn into the second Great Depression? The two persons who have been credited with the economic miracle and hailed as the ‘Man Who Saved the World’ are Gordon Brown, the embattled Prime Minister of the Britain, and Mr Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board. Brown of course was Chancellor to Tony Blair and presided over one of the longest periods of sustained growth in the UK while in the case of Bernanke, as providence would have it, his doctoral studies and expertise were coincidentally on the 1929-1934 Great Depression. That allowed him to exude the quiet but commanding and reassuring performance before the US Congress and Senate and guaranteed his nomination by President Obama for another five years when his current term ends early next year.
Across continents, Keynesian economics ruled the day, as governments primed their economies with newly printed money to prevent their collapse. It seems that the action taken produced results that exceeded the expectations of the politicians and economists, although not everyone is convinced that the recovery is permanent. For that we will have to wait and see. For now, however, the evidence of a recovery is strong, and while the economies and countries have grown at vastly different rates, everyone is impressed by their resilience. In today’s Business Page we look at the performance of the major economies and their prospects in the near and medium term.
The US
The bursting of the housing market bubble in the US had a domino effect, not only on the rest of the US economy, but across the world as a result of the investments by overseas investors in derivatives based on the housing market. Well, home sales have now risen for three straight months, and while this may be due to speculators cashing in on the bargains available on foreclosed properties, it is the first time since 2004 that the US experienced such a sales trend.
From its disastrous decline over a year, the stock market grew by 44 per cent since March, and many of the troubled banks which received bail-out money from Uncle Sam have reported a dramatic turnaround. In June, seven of the 10 indicators in the Conference Board Leading Economic Index pointed upward, including manufacturing hours worked and unemployment claims. But the US economy lost 6.5 million jobs since December 2007 and current unemployment now stands at 9.7 per cent and climbing. Compounding the problems for the US economy is the national debt which has risen dramatically and is projected to reach 77% of GDP in 2019 – up from 41% in 2008. This poses a huge challenge to President Obama who is losing political capital on health care reform and who needs the private sector to create millions of new jobs even as they face potential tax increases.
Asia
Once again the region astounds and confounds the critics, observers and the pundits. When the region experienced a financial crisis in 1997-98, the literature and conventional wisdom was that Asia was falling. The story of the region following the dot.com bubble was no different. Now we have the amazing story of how the region not only survived but has prospered during the most recent crisis. Conventional wisdom was that since the countries of the region were export-dependent, their recovery had to follow that of the rich world that bought its imports. Look at what happened – while the economies of the countries of Asia have galloped at close to 10% annually, those of the rich countries have contracted by close to 4%.
China’s economy – give and take some fudging of figures – grew at about 10%, the same as South Korea, while Taiwan’s industrial output grew by an annualised rate of a whopping 89% in the second quarter, and India’s industrial production was an impressive 14% growth in the second quarter. The Economist attributes the remarkable performance as arising from cyclical factors, the unfreezing of global finance, the comparatively more effective fiscal packages and the strength of the economies as the countries entered the recession. Other factors would of course include the work ethic of the Asians and their propensity to save.
Japan, the world’s second largest economy officially came out of recession in the second quarter of the year with a growth of 0.9%, after four consecutive quarters of contraction. The rebound was attributed to one of the largest and aggressive fiscal stimulus packages in the rich world, and so there is some concern among analysts whether the momentum can be sustained. Ever since the early nineties when its economy suffered a bursting of a land bubble the government has been grappling with how to rebalance the country’s economy. It has been less than successful, and a country known for Toyota, high tech and Buddhism has seen a boom in the brothel business and Toyota recording losses for the first time in its history. Yet, if Japan’s latest quarterly rate were maintained for a full year, the economy would grow 3.7%, slightly less than the 3.9% which the stock market was hoping for.
Europe
The United Kingdom: The end of the recession was pronounced by the prestigious Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW) following a recent study which showed the biggest rise in business confidence in two years. The Labour government which once appeared unbeatable is now heading for almost certain defeat next year, while the resurgent Conservatives dub the country as ‘Broken Britain.’ But the upbeat mood in the financial centre of the City and the emergence from the recession have been confirmed by detailed forecasts published by the Bank of England showing that gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 0.2 per cent between July and September, marking the first economic expansion since the first three months of last year. The bank expects the economy to continue to expand in the fourth quarter, by 0.4 per cent, and sustain the recovery throughout next year.
Contributing to the recovery were huge stimulus packages particularly in the financial sector, interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and a temporary reduction in the VAT from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent in December, all designed to boost consumer spending. The reduction in the VAT rate has however led to a huge budget deficit and has now come to an end.
The rest: France and Germany have posted surprising growth of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, a big turnaround fuelled by massive stimulus spending and Asian demand for exports. The exit from the recession was fuelled by massive government spending, strong social safety nets and a crucial boost from Asia and China in particular, causing one economist to describe the rebound as “made in China” as exports to that country particularly from France have surged.
Germany is Europe’s biggest economy and the world’s biggest exporter of manufactured goods. Not surprisingly then the German performance sets the pace and direction for the rest of the euro zone, whose members share a common currency. Those countries saw their economies shrink by only 0.1 per cent in the second quarter – far less than expected – after dropping 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.
Brazil: This South American giant and neighbour, more famous for its football and the Rio Carnival dubbed the greatest show on earth, has been one of the world’s great success stories and has chalked up some impressive successes in the midst of the global recession. Its President, Mr Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, trade unionist and one of the most popular and inspirational leaders in the world has presided over an economic boom with rising Foreign Direct Investment, stable consumption and near zero inflation. We in Guyana have such opportunities right over the bridge!
Caricom: The economies of the Caribbean, other than Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana, dependant as they are on tourists from the countries of Europe and North America have all been struggling with some turning to the IMF to shore up their weak economies, and one must wonder whether there is a positive relationship between the state of West Indian cricket and the performance of their economies. Like our cricket administrators, our politicians seem to be in a different world, and only last month T&T Energy Minister Conrad Enill denied that the country was ever in a recession, despite a decline in economic performance by more than four per cent between October 2008 and March 2009. To boost his argument, Mr Enill sought to give his own definition of recession.
With respect to Guyana, the Statistical Bureau simply refuses to publish any data, no doubt waiting on their political bosses for direction. I understand that figures must first be “cleared” by the Minister of Finance and until he gets around to providing the country with his mid-year report we will have to wait to see where and how we are. Let us hope however that our few outstanding exporters will move rapidly to take advantage of the new opportunities that the end of the recession offers.