Every Man, Woman and Child in Guyana must become oil-minded – Column 166
Today’s column compares the role of oil and the 2016 Petroleum Agreement in the 2025 election campaign and in 2020, the first year of oil production. Then Bharrat Jagdeo and Irfaan Ali were seeking to unseat the APNU + AFC Coalition. The Agreement was released to the public on 28 December 2017, but its terms were hotly debated and Jagdeo was violently opposed to every aspect about the contract.
Critics could hammer its poor terms and secrecy, link it to Raphael Trotman’s signature, and fold it into a wider indictment: APNU+AFC had lost a no-confidence motion in December 2018, refused to call elections on time, and then – when elections were finally held – spent five months trying to rig the results. With its 2% royalty, sweeping tax exemptions, lack of ring-fencing, and a year of secrecy before disclosure, it was the PPP/C’s sharpest weapon against the APNU+AFC coalition.
In that climate, the oil contract symbolised incompetence, impunity, and contempt for the rule of law. It was political dynamite.
Today, the deal is intact, citizens’ worst fears about the lopsided nature of the Agreement have been proved right. Yet, the political fire is gone – not because the problems have been resolved, but because the ground shifted.
A changed landscape in 2025
Production has more than quadrupled. Prices have stayed steady, revenues have kept flowing, and the budget is now about four times 2020’s size. The PPP/C has used this wealth not to fix the deal, but to bury it under high-visibility spending, ribbon-cuttings, and cash grants with more to come. For many households, a grant feels more important than a royalty clause. Attention has shifted from how the deal was made to how the windfall is distributed.
The opposition is weakened. APNU+AFC cannot credibly attack its own agreement. The scars of the no-confidence saga and the 2020 electoral impasse remain, and leadership changes have not restored trust.
More significantly and inexplicably, the PPP/C changed its tune. In opposition it promised “review and renegotiate.” In government it has refused to release the report on how the deal was signed, avoided investigating Trotman, kept secret the financing of billions in tax concessions, completed no audits of cost claims, stalled on renegotiation, and quietly channeled oil revenues into the much-delayed, over-budget gas-to-energy project. Its language now matches APNU+AFC’s old line: “sanctity of contract” and the Venezuela bogey. Then of course, the Vice President is the Petroleum Commission.
Several forces have removed the oil contract from Guyana’s political agenda. Direct cash handouts have proven more politically effective than contract debates. When voters receive immediate benefits, arguments about royalty rates lose both urgency and meaning. For many, the fear of antagonising Exxon – and by extension, the Trump administration – has become a new political reality. With Trump’s return to power and his pro-business stance, challenging American oil interests may seem riskier than defending sovereignty.
The National Assembly has avoided discussion of the petroleum agreement. Neither party shows willingness to reopen the contract, quarantining the issue from debate. Government influence over media has shifted coverage toward positive messaging while marginalizing critics. The transformation has been so complete that even Kaieteur News, once the loudest critic, lost a leading anti-contract journalist to the camp of its defenders.
Years of technical arguments with little change have exhausted commentators and the public. The complexity of petroleum economics has proven difficult to sustain politically. The absence of disasters has weakened reform arguments. Without oil spills, critics’ warnings remain theoretical, removing catalysts for concern.
Broader democratic concerns have overshadowed contract issues. Questions about governance have drawn energy away from petroleum debates toward institutional health. Venezuela’s territorial claims have made ExxonMobil’s presence geopolitically valuable. Challenging the company is seen as undermining security, increasing threats to our territoriality.
With this retreat, Exxon may feel that it has taken ownership of Guyana.
The consequences of silence
But the PPP/C is as much an asset to and a friend of Exxon as the APNU +AFC has been. Its record on oil governance is no better than APNU+AFC’s: no reform of a widely criticised contract, no completed audits, no accountability for its signing, no delivery of an independent petroleum commission; secrecy over vast tax credits that would wipe out the Natural Resource Fund if properly accounted for. And the control of every aspect of the largest sector of the economy in the grip of one man, in a mutual pact with Exxon.
Each passing year reinforces the belief that nothing can and will be changed. An agreement condemned in 2020 that remains unchanged in 2025 becomes more entrenched with each passing year. And that does not escape the wily eyes of Exxon.
Yet, the fundamental issues remain as they were in 2020. Oil belongs to the people; so do the revenues. Being “oil-minded” does not mean memorising production data – it means looking beyond today’s grants to securing Guyana’s sovereignty and tomorrow’s sustainability. It means insisting on transparency, audits, and investments that outlast the oil era: education, health, infrastructure, and diversification.
Conclusion
The 2016 Petroleum Agreement has not faded because it is no longer an issue. It has lost its sharpness because of the duplicity and the about face of the PPP/C. It has been buried by money, messaging, a weakened opposition, parliamentary silence, media influence, fatigue, democratic erosion, geopolitics, growing evidence of pervasive corruption, and the threats to our democracy.
In 2020, it was a sword. In 2025, neither main party wants to touch it. That is exactly why the people must. Every year of silence makes Exxon’s position more unshakeable and Guyana’s leverage weaker. The window for fair terms is closing with each passing barrel. We must remain oil minded.